Wednesday 21 November 2012

Shock-Proofing Asia’s Economies

By : Noeleen Heyzer

Source: http://www.project-syndicate.org/

10 May 2012

BANGKOK – Uncertainty and volatility have quickly become the “new normal” of the global economy. For several reasons, this turbulent external environment poses the most significant threat to Asia-Pacific growth in 2012.

One of this environment’s main features is the ongoing weakness of major developed economies. The expected V-shaped global recovery, from the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, proved short-lived. The world economy entered a second stage of crisis in 2011, owing to eurozone’s sovereign-debt crisis and continuing uncertainty about the economic outlook for the United States.

Mapping the landscape of these threats, forecasting their impact, and presenting a range of policy options to help countries to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth despite the uncertainty, is the focus of the United Nations’ 2012 Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific.

Our forecast is that persistent headwinds will slow Asia-Pacific economic growth to 6.5% this year, down from 7% in 2011. Reduced demand for regional exports and higher costs of capital, combined with loose monetary policies and trade protectionism in some advanced economies, will contribute to the slowdown.

Nevertheless, Asia-Pacific growth will continue to outpace that of all other regions, acting as an anchor of stability and a new pole of dynamism for the world economy. For example, South-South trade with the Asia-Pacific countries in 2012 will help other developing regions, especially Africa and Latin America, to reduce further their dependence on the low-growth advanced economies.

Moreover, robust growth from the Asian economic powerhouses will continue in 2012, with China likely to grow at 8.6% and India’s growth expected to accelerate from 6.9% to 7.5%. The South-East Asian sub-region is likely to record a slight increase in growth, owing to Thailand’s strong recovery following the 2011 floods, and annual inflation in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole is projected to fall from 6.1% to 4.8%.

The greatest risk to the Asia-Pacific economy in 2012 is a disorderly sovereign-debt default in Europe, or an unraveling of the eurozone. This worst-case scenario could lead to Asia-Pacific export losses of up to $390 billion in one year, with least-developed and landlocked developing countries worst hit – losing as much as 10% of their total exports. Although unlikely, such a scenario could reduce regional growth by as much as 1.3 percentage points, and prevent 22 million people from escaping $2-a-day poverty in 2012.

A second key challenge to Asian regional growth in 2012 is commodity price volatility, together with a long-term rising trend. High prices and persistent volatility are increasingly features of the “new normal,” and both national and regional economies need to adjust to this reality.

The commodity boom that has resulted from higher prices presents both risks and opportunities. Price shifts alter incentives, but the less-developed economies of Asia and the Pacific must resist the impulse towards narrow commodity specialization. The lesson from the first round of Western globalization was that natural-resource specialization, especially in the poorest countries, can delay industrialization, economic diversification, and the creation of productive capacity.

Another key step in “shock-proofing” Asian economies will be to address the problem of jobless growth, unemployment, and rising inequalities. This needs to be a gradual process of rebalancing, supporting greater domestic consumption as an enhanced engine of growth and productivity, job creation, and income equality.

Other critical economic-policy challenges in 2012 will include managing the balance between growth and price stability – which will require inflation-fighting measures beyond monetary policy alone; coping with capital flows, especially the surge in short-term debt; dealing with exchange-rate volatility; and addressing the impact of extreme weather and natural disasters.

The Asia-Pacific countries are fortunate to face the turbulence and uncertainty of the global economy this year from a position of relative strength. High GDP growth rates, significant fiscal room for maneuver, and increasing economic cooperation make the region’s prospects for 2012 brighter than almost anywhere else.

Making the right policy choices – to build resilience and pursue a sustainable pathway to shared prosperity – will prepare Asia and the Pacific to flourish in the context of sustained global uncertainty. That is good news in a troubled and turbulent world.

Read more from our "Asia's Tipping Point" Focal Point.

Tuesday 20 November 2012

Two pre-conditions for Pakatan Rakyat to beat Umno/Barisan Nasional in the battle for Putrajaya in the 13GE

PAS President, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang said in his speech at the opening of the 58th PAS Muktamar this morning that PAS is prepared to take federal power with its Pakatan Rakyat allies.

Malaysians are at the crossroads in the 13th General Elections, to decide whether the country should have a new beginning by electing a new Pakatan Rakyat federal government in Putrajaya or whether the corruption, abuses of power, injustices and inequalities of the Umno/Barisan Nasional Government should continue to blight the future, hopes and aspirations of the people.

There are two pre-conditions if Pakatan Rakyat is to beat UMNO/Barisan Nasional in the battle for Putrajaya in the 13 General Elections.

The Pakatan Rakyat coalition of PAS, PKR and DAP must be able to show and convince Malaysians of two important differences with the Umno/Barisan Nasional coalition.

Firstly, that the Pakatan Rakyat coalition practices the politics of “Unite and Rule” as distinct from the traditional but divisive and destructive politics of “Divide and Rule” of UMNO/BN, polarizing instead of uniting Malaysians along racial and religious lines.

Through the politics of lies, falsehoods and fear, UMNO/Barisan Nasional spread different and conflicting messages among different racial and religious groups, sowing the seeds of suspicion, distrust and even hatred, which is totally against the task of Malaysian nation-building.

Among the Malays, UMNO spread the lies and falsehoods that if Pakatan Rakyat wins in the 13GE, the DAP will be the real “power” in Putrajaya, that Malay rights would be sacrificed with Malays becoming “beggars in the own land”, Islam marginalized and the country become a Christian Malaysia, the system of Malay Rulers abolished and Malaysia will become a republic. In other words, that the DAP would renege and betray the pledges made in the Pakatan Rakyat Common Policy Programme and Buku Jingga.

Among the Chinese, MCA is allowed to spread fear with the lies and falsehoods that PAS will be the real “power” if Pakatan Rakyat wins resulting in the sacrifice of the political, economic, educational, social, cultural and religious rights of the non-Malays and non-Muslims. Underlying these lies and falsehoods is the message that PAS would renege and betray the pledges made in the Pakatan Rakyat Common Policy Programme and Buku Jingga.

This is a most irresponsible and reckless politicking, completely heedless of the harm of such “divide and rule” tactics to the Malaysian nation-building process.

In contrast, the Pakatan Rakyat parties of PAS, PKR and DAP seek to unite Malaysians, regardless of race, religion or region, with the common vision and objective – to restore justice, freedom, democracy and good governance in the country.

Also unlike Barisan Nasional under UMNO hegemony, Pakatan Rakyat is a coalition of equals which operates on the basis of consensus. There is no hegemony by any single party in Pakatan Rakyat.

Secondly, we must convince Malaysians that another great difference with UMNO/BN is that the Pakatan Rakyat coalition practises the politics of sincerity, honesty and trust, where our word is our bond, and that none of the three parties in Pakatan Rakyat, whether PAS, PKR or DAP, would renege or betray the pledges and commitments we have made in the PR, whether in the Common Policy Programme or Buku Jingga.

I call on all leaders, members and supporters of Pakatan Rakyat, whether PAS, PKR or DAP, to commit themselves to give full support to the cause of effecting change in the 13GE as this is the only way to end the corruption, abuses of power, injustices and inequalities rampant under UMNO/BN rule.

(Speech at the Pakatan Rakyat Himpunan Kebangkitan Rally at Stadium Mohammad IV Stadium, Kota Baru on Friday, 16th November 2012 at 10 pm)

Source: http://blog.limkitsiang.com/
Middle income-trap – Malaysia has shot itself in the foot!

Malaysia’s Development Strategy Revisited (2)

by Dr. Mohamed Ariff*

Input-Driven Growth unsustainable

It goes without saying that Malaysia must grow at a faster pace if it is serious about joining the club of developed countries by 2020 – hence the need to reinvent itself through reforms that can help restore the lost growth potential. Malaysia has learned the hard way that input-driven growth is unsustainable. It is instructive to note that the economy was growing at a rate of over 8.0 per cent in the early 1990s despite declining total factor productivity. To stay competitive, the growth strategy then was to keep wages low with the aid of a large migrant workforce. Obviously there was a dismal failure to understand that there were limits to economic expansion through input increases.

Migrant Workers depress wages

It was a major policy blunder to let migrant workers depress wages in the country, thereby throttling productivity improvements. Malaysia locked itself into low value-added manufacturing by allowing foreign workers to work in the sector for low wages, thus removing the incentive for manufacturers to automate. The size of the problem is huge: the country reportedly has 1.9 million registered migrant workers and another 600,000 unregistered ones (probably an underestimate), accounting for nearly one-fifth of the working population. These workers are not confined to the so-called 3D jobs – the difficult, dirty and dangerous jobs that the locals shun – but compete with Malaysians in the wider labour market.

This is a race that Malaysian workers are bound to lose, as migrant workers are willing to accept lower wages and work longer hours, with no laws – let alone enforcement of laws – in place to protect their rights. Unless and until there is equal pay for equal work, the employers’ penchant for migrant workers will continue unabated.

This is not to deny that Malaysia needs the services of foreign workers, both skilled and unskilled. But care must be taken to ensure that they are treated with dignity and fairness, and not exploited by agents, employers and the authorities. Condoning the injustices inflicted on foreign workers only serves to increase the demand for foreign workers, to the detriment of locals in the labour market.

Productivity Gains Needed

Malaysia has inadvertently fallen into a middle-income trap by adopting an ill-conceived policy of preserving its fading competitiveness through suppressed wages. High wages need not mean high labour costs if the increased wages are backed by productivity gains. By the same token, low wages may not translate into low labour costs if productivity suffers. In the Malaysian context, the social cost of employing migrant labour far exceeds the private cost to employers. If the negative externalities associated with the excessive presence of migrant workers are taken into account, the short-sighted dependence on the migrant workforce turns out to be a costly affair. Obviously Malaysia has shot itself in the foot!

to be continue

Source: http://blog.limkitsiang.com/

Tuesday 13 November 2012

Kalau terasa akan kalah, biarkan sahaja Parlimen terbubar dengan sendirinya

― Aspan Alias, The Malaysian Insider, Nov 13, 2012

13 Nov ― Ada dua perkara yang saya hendak sentuh sekali gus hari ini. Yang pertamanya ialah tentang program UMNO Seremban yang mengadakan majlis parti di Kem Tentera Sikamat, Seremban, dan yang kedua ialah isu Himpunan Rakyat 1Malaysia yang dianjurkan oleh UMNO dan BN melalui penganjuran oleh beberapa NGO pada 24 hb November ini.

Saya tidak berapa perasan bila program itu diadakan tetapi yang nyata ada jemputan Dato’ Ishak Ismail kepada semua penduduk Sikamat untuk mereka hadir di majlis anjuran beliau di dalam kem Rejimen Ke-4, Artileri Di- Raja, Sikamat dan ini amat memeranjatkan banyak pihak kerana ia dibenarkan oleh pemerintah Kem tersebut untuk UMNO mengadakan majlis politik itu.

Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Menteri Pertahanan, yang berucap dalam majlis itu sepatutnya memberikan penjelasan kenapa UMNO mengheret tentera dalam politik dan jika tentera menjadi aktif dalam politik ini merupakan petanda buruk akan melanda negara dan tidak siapa akan dapat mengenali politik yang sebenarnya dalam tempoh yang terdekat ini. Ini merupakan satu fenomena baru di dalam UMNO dan ini hanya menunjukkan betapa terdesaknya parti yang telah memerintah negara sejak merdeka itu.

Jika tentera digiatkan dalam politik maka kita sudah tidak ada lagi sistem politik yang betul dan ia akan hanya membawa negara kepada keadaan dan situasi yang mana rakyat tidak akan tahu lagi yang mana satu sistem yang betul sebagai sebuah negara demokrasi kerana semua sistem dan tata cara bernegara itu sudah berkecamuk dan tidak menentu lagi. Anak-anak muda tidak akan lagi tahu siapa yang sepatutnya bergiat dan siapa yang sepatutnya duduk di tengah-tengah dengan ‘magnanimous’ kerana setiap rakyat sudah tidak tahu lagi yang mana yang sepatutnya mereka lakukan dan yang mana yang tidak boleh dan beretika untuk dilakukan.

Oleh kerana keadaan ini sudah mula berlaku ia sepatutnya menjadi pengukur kepada kemampuan untuk mempertahankan sistem demokrasi negara ini. Maka tidak boleh kita biarkan perkara seperti ini berlaku justeru pilihanraya inilah sebaik-baik masa untuk memperbetulkan apa yang tidak kena dalam negara kita ini. Himpunan rakyat 1Malaysia

Ketua Penerangan UMNO, Ahmad Maslan, telah membuat sidang media semalam yang beliau sedang mengetuai satu sekatariat untuk menganjurkan himpunan rakyat 1Malaysia pada November ini di Kuala Lumpur. Ia bermatlamatkan untuk meningkatkan sokongan rakyat kepada kepimpinan pada hari ini dan UMNO sedang menggunakan badan-badan bukan kerajaan untuk menganjurkannya. Menggunakan NGO-NGO seperti ini merupakan satu-satunya jalan untuk mengumpulkan manusia yang sudah menjauhi UMNO dan BN itu.

Tetapi masalahnya UMNO menggunakan cara yang sama yang digunakan oleh Pakatan Rakyat dan ia bukan cara UMNO yang lazim mereka lakukan. UMNO terpaksa menciplak dan mengadakan perhimpunan seperti yang dilakukan oleh pembangkang. Tetapi perbezaannya amat jauh di antara UMNO dan pembangkang kerana UMNO sudah pasti terpaksa menggunakan badan-badan NGO dan tentulah ia memakan belanja yang banyak untuk menyempurnakannya. Saya tidak menjangka yang orang ramai akan memberikan sokongan padu terhadap perhimpunan ini kerana mereka dijemput dengan semua persediaan yang mahal-mahal dengan karipap dan minuman serta tambang menambang serta bas-bas percuma untuk mengangkut manusia yang kebanyakannya terdiri dari pelajar-pelajar dan budak sekolah.

Berlainan dengan pihak PR yang hanya mengumumkan tempat dan waktu perhimpunan diadakan tanpa perlu membayar dan menyediakan makanan dan khemah-khemah untuk menarik orang ramai untuk datang. Kita telah melihat berapa ramainya kedatangan serta kehadiran rakyat jelata dalam perhimpunan rakyat di Senawang, Seremban pada 3hb Nov yang lepas. Mereka datang dalam hujan lebat dan berpayung dan berbaju hujan yang tidak diberikan oleh PR. Mereka berbelanja sendiri kerana yang memberikan motivasi mereka untuk hadir itu adalah semangat dan perasaan ingin kepada perubahan kerajaan dalam pilihanraya yang akan datang.

UMNO atau BN tidak mungkin mampu untuk memanggil kehadiran yang besar tanpa disediakan makanan, pengangkutan, topi serta baju T yang mahal-mahal. Sebaliknya bagi UMNO, mereka akan diberikan kontrak untuk membekalkan baju T dan topi. Mereka tentulah mendapat habuan yang besar dan mereka yang mendapat kontrak itu tentulah mereka yang hampir dengan pejabat setiausaha agong dan setiausaha kerja UMNO Pusat. Satu perhimpunan rakyat anjuran BN itu akan memakan belanja yang berjuta-juta.

Bagi UMNO ia hanya untuk menunjukkan kepada ramai yang mereka juga mendapat sokongan tetapi rakyat tahu tujuan pimpinan BN hanyalah untuk merawati jiwa mereka yang tertekan dalam menghadapi pilihanraya yang hampir tiba ini. Mereka (UMNO) hanya hendak menunjukkan dan menempelkan imej sokongan sahaja tetapi ia hanyalah ibarat seorang wanita yang mengenakan bedak sejuk di muka mereka sahaja. Bedak sejuk di muka-muka mereka akan hilang setelah baru bangun dari tidur dan selepas mandi. Bedak sejuk itu tidak kekal melekat di muka-muka mereka.

Mengikut kata-kata Ahmad Maslan di antara mereka yang berucap nanti adalah mereka yang mewakili berbagai-bagai bidang masyarakat. Beberapa professor kangkong serta mereka yang bergelar dan bernama yang mewakili berbagai pihak akan berucap. Mereka termasuklah Chandra Muzaffar dan Lee Lam Thye. Apa yang akan mereka perkatakan tidaklah dapat kita jangkakan kerana selalunya mereka akan memberikan retorik dan ucapan mengungkit-ngungkit tentang apa yang BN telah lakukan kepada rakyat dan sebagainya.

Mereka tidak akan berani bercakap tentang segala kemungkaran politik, ekonomi dan sosial yang BN telah lakukan oleh mereka selama ini. Satu yang pasti perhimpunan anjuran BN akan menggunakan belanja yang besar untuk menjayakannya. Untuk mengekalkan BN memerintah rakyat terpaksa berbelanja terlalu mahal tetapi tidak juga mendapat perhatian ramai.

Bagi pandangan peribadi saya jika BN tidak berkeyakinan dengan diri sendiri untuk menghadapi PRU ini biarkan sahaja penggal ini terbubar dengan sendirinya pada 28hb April yang akan datang. Mengadakan perhimpunan besar pun bukannya memberikan faedah apa-apa pun. Apa perbezaan di antara 29hb April dengan Mac? Yang pasti Najib merupakan satu-satunya PM yang belum mendapat mandat sehingga hari ini.

Kalau UMNO sudah masuk kem tentera untuk mengadakan ceramah, itu adalah petanda yang UMNO tidak relevan lagi kepada rakyat biasa.

Thursday 1 November 2012

The al-Bukhary story: how it all began

Tun Datu Haji Mustapha bin Datu Harun was the President of USNO and the third Chief Minister of Sabah. Tan Sri Syed Kechik Syed Mohamed was the Legal Adviser to Tun Datu Mustapha and the Director of Yayasan Sabah, the foundation that was set up as the trustee of the state’s timber wealth. Syed Kechik’s famous (or infamous) nephew cum son-in-law is Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Albukhary, another man of great controversy -- just like his father-in-law, Syed Kechik, and Syed Kechik’s ‘mentor’, Tun Datu Mustapha.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

An embarrassment of business opportunities, political patronage and debts. The Syed Mokhtar al Bukhary story.

CT Ali, Free Malaysia Today

Syed Mokhtar al Bukhary is like a king? First it was FLOM and now it is SMIK? (Syed Mokhtar is King). What will our king have to say about this pretender to his throne who also happens to be a tycoon – something which our king is not.

All this came from that MP from Kinabatangan, Bung Mokhtar Radin.

The first question I want to ask of this Sabah Umno leader is why has he got his beady eyes trained on this Syed Mokhtar guy?

I am no fan of Syed Mokhtar but why is Bung Mokhtar breaking ranks with Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak in the same way he did with Shahrizat Abdul Jalil – and you know what happened to Shahrizat after that.

Or is Bung Mokhtar taking a position to the rear of Najib’s unprotected left flank ready to do battle against Najib?

Or has Syed Mokhtar done an Abdul Razak Baginda on Bung Mokhtar?