Speculation
is rife that Pakatan could win enough in the polls to lure ruling coalition
defectors and form a government.
KUALA
LUMPUR: After bloodying the government’s nose in 2008 elections, a more
experienced and organised Malaysian opposition is eyeing the once-unthinkable:
toppling one of the world’s longest-serving governments.
Malaysians
vote soon with the formerly hapless opposition buoyed by a new track record of
state-level government, signs of growing voter support, and what its leader
Anwar Ibrahim calls a sense of history in the making.
“I
am convinced, Inshallah (God willing), that we will win government,” Anwar told
AFP, evoking the winds of change that powered the “Arab Spring” elsewhere in
the Muslim world.
“Of
course we call it a ‘Malaysian Spring’, but our method is elections (not
uprisings).”
Prime
Minister Najib Tun Razak is expected to call a fresh vote in weeks, pitting his
Malay-dominated Barisan Nasional coalition against Anwar’s multi-ethnic
opposition alliance Pakatan Rakyat.
The
57-year-old ruling bloc enjoys deep pockets, mainstream media control, an
electoral system the opposition says is rigged, and a record of decades of
economic growth under its authoritarian template.
Few
expect the opposition to win the 112 parliamentary seats needed to take power.
The three-party alliance won 82 seats in the 2008 polls, up from 21, stunning
the BN with its biggest-ever setback.
But
speculation is rife that Pakatan could win enough in the polls — which must be
held by late June — to lure ruling coalition defectors and form a government.
“Before
this year, many were in denial about Pakatan’s potential. Today, we see society
beginning to accept that the possibility (of a BN defeat) is real,” said Wan
Saiful Wan Jan, who runs the independent Malaysian think tank IDEAS.
The
country’s stock market has trembled recently over the uncertainty as opinion
polls suggest the vote will be tight. One recent survey put Najib and Anwar
neck-and-neck as prime ministerial candidates.
In
a Jan 12 show of force, the opposition held a rally that drew clsoe to 100,000
people.
“I
think it’s very close, and the party that makes the least mistakes will be the
party that wins,” said S Ambiga, , head of Bersih, an NGO coalition that has
organised large public rallies for electoral reform.
Pakatan’s
promise
Pakatan
attacks the ruling coalition, and particularly its dominant partner Umno, as
corrupt, repressive and lacking a long-term vision for Malaysia.
Anwar
says Pakatan would end authoritarianism and free the media.
It
would lure foreign investment by attacking rampant graft and reforming the
system of preferences for Malays that is blamed for harming national econonomic
competitiveness and stoking resentment among minority Chinese and Indians.
“The
people are committed to reform. There is a legitimate expectation among the
public for them to see that reforms do take place,” Anwar said.
Anwar,
who was acquitted a year ago on sodomy charges he called a bogus Umno attempt
to ruin him politically, has been integral to the opposition’s revival.
The
former BN heir-apparent’s spectacular 1998 ouster in a power struggle with
then-premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad gifted the opposition a charismatic leader
with top government experience to rally around.
The
loose alliance of 2008 is stronger today, having since agreed on a common
manifesto, and has shown it can govern in four states won five years ago, the
most ever in opposition hands. Malaysia has 13 states.
“Cooperation
between the parties is much stronger than 2008. They have done more to prepare
the ground for new voters,” said leading political pollster Ibrahim Suffian.
Concerns
linger over Pakatan’s ability to govern nationally.
Besides
Anwar’s multi-racial PKR, it includes PAS representing Muslim ethnic Malays,
and the secular DAP dominated by ethnic Chinese.
PAS’s
calls for an Islamic state are a source of alliance squabbling, but Anwar
dismisses any concern, saying PAS realises the goal is a non-starter in the
diverse nation.
Economists,
meanwhile, warn that populist Pakatan promises such as free
primary-to-university education could sink Malaysia into debt, while noting
ever-larger public handouts by Najib’s government also posed a risk.
Najib
took office in 2009 and has portrayed himself as a reformer but surveys suggest
BN is still viewed as a corruption-plagued, status-quo force.
Eroding
minority support, particularly Chinese, that hurt the coalition in 2008 appears
to be accelerating, independent polls show, while first-time voters estimated
to number up to three million are a question mark.
One
top Umno official told AFP that party officials fear the coalition could lose
20 more seats — it now has 140 — raising the spectre of a Pakatan power play.
“All
said, Najib still has the advantage, but an opposition victory is clearly
possible,” said Bridget Welsh, a Southeast Asian politics expert at Singapore
Management University.
